The Australian almond crop for 2025-26 looks set to be down by at least 10-20% on the industry’s expectations.
The Almond Board of Australia has received consistent reports from processors that hot dry conditions throughout the growing season and post-bloom frosts in September have contributed to a downgraded crop outlook.
Harvest was completed before Easter for the first time in many years, but the high value Nonpareil variety, which makes up nearly 50% of industry plantings, has been returning lower than expected kernel weights during primary processing. Low kernel moistures due to the excessive heat is being cited as a key factor.
An actual crop size will be confirmed in September-October once hulling and shelling is completed, but early out-turn results have provided sufficient evidence to notify the market that the 2025-26 crop will fall short of expectations. The industry tonnage timeline that calculates yield against age of orchards indicated that 2025-26 had the potential to yield almost 172,000 tonnes, but a pre-season update tempered these expectations to 155,531 tonnes.
Marketers are experiencing strong demand for Australian almonds given the tariffs being imposed in China and potentially other export markets. This uncertainty has many first time buyers turning their attention to Australia as an alternate source.
Pricing has climbed significantly since the March 1 season opening and combined with the weak Australian dollar, grower returns look set to be among the best in a decade.